America’s only accurate pollster warns of cheating in Pennsylvania
By Don Rosenberg – 10/21/2020
Using polls to successfully predict which candidate will win, or gauging a candidate’s position before the vote, can be extremely valuable. But recently polls have become a political weapon, usually to demoralize the other side or erode financial support. If your candidate is losing by a wide margin, there’s no reason to vote, right?
The 2016 election was noted for late polls showing the odds of a Hillary Clinton win were 70 to 99%. The Trafalgar group, created by Robert Cahaly, was the only national polling organization that got it right. They projected the Trump wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan and had the most accurate polls in five of the battleground states. They even predicted the electoral college score of 306 to 232. In 2018, Cahaly accurately predicted wins in 7 of 9 battleground Senate races.
His secret was based on many factors, but one was short surveys. If you call 1,000 people on the phone and ask them to answer 30 questions, most will hang up. Those who do respond don’t represent average voters but are likely very conservative, very liberal, or very lonely.
In 2016 Cahaly also considered the “shy voter effect” – people afraid to express their opinions to a stranger on the phone. This has become more pronounced in 2020, with Trump supporters being fired, shunned, or physically attacked for their opinions. Cahaly works to find ways to make the respondents feel their answers are anonymous.
He also noted the “social desirability bias,” which is when a voter gives an answer to please the pollster, instead of the truth. This was well-documented in the 1980’s when Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles, got fewer votes than predicted because responders didn’t want to seem racist.
Cahaly has learned that only one in six conservatives are willing to participate in a poll, so he makes extra effort to find conservative voters to make a balanced survey.
There are other techniques that he uses to maximize accuracy, but the real question is, “why aren’t other pollsters adopting Trafalgar Group methods?” The answer is likely one of two reasons – business inertia, where polling organizations simply continue to use old methods, or political bias, where pollsters get the pro-liberal results they expect, or fear that their liberal clients won’t hire them if true figures are revealed.
In an interview with Rich Lowry of National Review, Cahaly talked about Trump in Pennsylvania. “Right now, we’ve got him down in Pennsylvania,” he says, “I think if it were held today, the undecided would break toward Trump and there’d be some hidden vote. He’d probably win Pennsylvania. But I’m going to give a caveat on only Pennsylvania. I believe Pennsylvania to be the No. 1 state that Trump could win and have stolen due to voter fraud.”
And here lies the biggest factor to consider in the critical 2020 election – voter fraud. A late-August article in the New York Post by Jon Levine detailed techniques used by a Democrat “professional vote-rigger” who had been stealing elections in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania for thirty years.
With the extreme hatred toward President Trump and conservatives, and the massive increase in mail-in voting because of coronavirus fears, the potential for fraud to be the deciding factor in the November election is significant.
A review of the 2016 results shows six states with 39 electoral votes were decided by just over 92,000 votes. Cahaly currently predicts that Trump will win, but with a closer margin, perhaps 281 to 257, which means that a single state with 12 electoral votes could decide for the whole country.
There are already scores of cases of voter fraud in the 2020 primaries, along with multiple reports of mail-in ballots being stolen or lost in the mail. And why is it that almost every Democrat legislative proposal in the last six months has included a wide array of measures to actually reduce voter security measures?
Madison.com lists the latest polls in the contested states, and many of them include Trafalgar results along with Real Clear Politics averages. If you compare the RCP figures with Trafalgar you find that RCP may be overstating the Biden vote by 4.6%. In 14 battleground states, RCP has Biden ahead in 11, but in the 9 states where Trafalgar has results, two are for Biden, and one is a tie. If you add the 4.6% undercount to the states without a Trafalgar poll, Biden only leads in 2 of 14 states.
This makes logical sense, since Biden is one of the worst candidates to run for public office, and no one attends the few events he holds, while the enthusiasm for Trump is massive, with people in line for days to attend a two-hour rally. Furthermore, the recent old-style poll results for Biden are actually a bit worse than the same polls for Clinton in 2016, which means with a similar undercount, Trump could win 2020 by an even greater margin.
But the prospect of wide-spread voter fraud is looming. If you look at 2016 results, you find five states, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, with a total of 67 electoral votes, had their total margin of victory as just over 213,000 votes.
So the fate of our country may not rest with voters mailing in ballots or coming to the polls, but with the lawyers and legal authorities who will conduct a different kind of battle after the polls close. The Left Media will wage a war of their own, claiming that the Trump victory is not legitimate “until every vote is counted,” with riots on the streets of Democrat cities and suburbs that will make Seattle and Portland look like a day in the park.
The only hope to avoid this threat to our national unity is to persuade Christians who have been reluctant voters, and suburban moms (who think Trump is too brash) to join African-Americans and Hispanics (who are seeing that the Democrat party has done nothing for them other than to take their votes for granted).
The victory for Trump must outweigh the cheating.